[SOCIETY] Deglobalisation : What to expect?

 Shivshankar Menon warns, “we are headed for a poorer, meaner, and smaller world."

Globalisation is often described through metaphors like 'Global Village', 'Borderless world'. However, the real globalisation is much more complex than these metaphors suggest. The simplistic view is that globalisation is growing interconnectedness, which essentially results in compression of time and space. It is a multi-conceptual and multi-dimensional term with social, political, economic and cultural domains. It can also have many models like Pax Americana or Pax Sinica.

The American model or Pax Americana is based on liberal international order. It has three components : (a) Growth of institutions - World Bank, IMF, WTO (b) Democracy - spread of democratic values (c) Free trade - greater impetus to private sector.

The Pax Sinica fashions itself as an alternative, a anti-thesis to the American model. Some features of Chinese model are : (a) Authoritarianism - to keep communist party in control (b) State led economy - not allowing foreign capitalists to gain economic power over the state (c) Destroying old institutions - replace them with your own, like AIIB, NDB etc.

The process of deglobalisation is said to have started after the global financial crisis in 2008. But, globalisation and deglobalisation have always co-existed. We can see that when Benjamin Barber talks of McDonalds Vs Bihar. However, the forces of deglobalisation have gained strength in recent times. Populist leaders found excuse in rising inequality, unemployment and immigration issues, a consequence of globalisation to challenge it. 

It is said that globalisation has produced a variable geography. There have been differences in the developed and developing nations. The developed have benefitted more and the global south has seen very few silver linings. There has been visa free travel among EU nations. While there is no 'borderless' world within the countries of 'global south' and between the global north and global south.

Leaders in the south look at globalisation through the lens of 'cultural imperialism' as capitalism turns 'pop culture' into 'mass culture' and pushes homogenising ideas like universal human rights, democracy for all, music, cinema, stuff like plant based diet with utmost disregard to the indigenous cultures and diversity. There is a need to have a relook at the idea of 'Asian Values'.

To understand the real extent of deglobalisation. We need to understand how globalisation evolved in the first place. It wasn't always linked to liberal international order.

1) Phase 1 : Industrial revolution in Europe in 18th century and establishment of colonies to procure raw materials and access to market.

2) Phase 2 : 1815, Congress of Vienna. The concert of Europe was ready to protect monarchies from the republican challenge(after French revolution and Napoleonic wars)

3) Phase 3 : Pax Brittanica till World War 2 and Pax Americana after Cold War. Beginning of liberal international world order.

Presently, there is a greater threat to liberal order than deglobalisation. The inequitable consequences of globalisation are certainly one of the factors for the crumbling of the pillars of liberal international order. But it is not the only factor.

Globalisation saw its economic peak in 2007. Since 2008, there was a downward trend. Yet, it kept bouncing back due to joint efforts of the G-20 countries. The latest in the line of disruptions is the COVID-19 pandemic and the War in Ukraine. According to IMF, the world economic growth declined in 2020 by 3.3%. But it shot up to show a positive growth of 6.5% in 2021.

Western countries have been better placed to deal with economic shocks and can bring their economies back on track. They have the advantage in terms of vaccination, resilient supply chains and a strong financial system. The emerging economies are on the other hand suffering great economic losses, loss of human capital. Some of which is irreversible. There's a possibility of 95 million people falling back into extreme poverty, women, youth and low skilled workers are among the hardest hit. Thus, not only countries but even societies are also diverging away from each other.

Often, we admire the positives of globalisation. It's capacity to promote peace and prosperity. Boris Johnson said, "Capitalism and greed are responsible for Covid vaccine." Even acting in greed, we find that it can have positive impact in the world. But we tend to ignore many negative consequences like the climate crisis, increasing pandemics, trans-national organised crimes.

Globalisation has linked people around the globe in a complex way. In words of Thomas Friedman, it enabled the inexorable integration of markets, nation states, technology to an extent never seen before. Interactions have become Farther, Faster, Cheaper, Deeper. Although the willingness to act in concert is fading away. It is not going anywhere. To quote Tony Blair, "globalisation is irreversible." 

To conclude, we can say that globalisation is only changing its form and we may see a rise in friend shoring, small multilaterals instead of supranational entities. We may witness a shift towards a small backyard with tall fences. There should be no doubt that the next phase will be led by Asian countries. There is a new balance of power emerging and it points towards 'Asian Century', which will be largely shaped by India and China.